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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.